Commercialization

Potential Annual Revenue

based on United States Market Size

—

Assumptions

0
75,000 unpowered low-head dams in the USA
0
2250 are able to be utilized for hydroelectric purposes with this technology
0
Typically 5 generating units per site
0kW
Average annualized output per turbine unit
$.00/kWH
Recent grid average sale price

—

Potential

63958kWH
Annual power output per site = 350 x 24 x 365 x 5 = 15,330,000 kWH
$5611
Annual value of power produced per site = 15,330,000 x.077 = $1,180,410
$91458
Annual revenue value of all sites = $1,180,410 x 2250 = $2,660,000,000

Simplified Payback Analysis Cost Model

Revenue

Using very conservative estimates, a simplified financial model, average annual revenue, and an average of 5-Units per site installation…

  • Based on estimated annual revenue per generating unit of $236,800 at 350 kW average annual output and $.077 per kWH pricing
  • A single 5-Unit site operation would yield annual revenue of approximately $1,180,410.
Cost

Total present value of one-time installation costs and ongoing operating costs

  • Site and Unit Installation Costs
  • Costs include generating unit field installation, electrical interconnection equipment and construction, permitting, start-up costs, and the present value of ongoing O&M
  • Grid interconnection equipment and installation costs are estimated to be $2,000,000 per site plus $1,000,000 per unit, or $7,000,000 for a 5-unit site.

Unit Production Costs

  • The cost to produce and deliver each generating unit is estimated at $1,000,000 or $5.0 million for a 5-Unit site
  • The total present value cost to install a five-unit site is estimated at $7 million

 

Simple EBITDA Payback
  • Dividing costs by revenue produces a simple payback of 5.9 years
  • Payback is highly sensitive to turbine efficiency, site development cost, generating unit cost, and site power production potential
  • Research enabling effective design, fabrication, and construction of the generating unit will be a significant factor enabling financial success

Comparison of Competing Technologies

Wind Power

Advantages

Advanced technical development, widespread commercial deployment, high-volume cost advantages, very flexible deployment at distribution levels.

Disadvantages

Sporadic and unpredictable power supplies, low power output at distribution levels, real impact only at transmission voltages with limited areas of deployment

Solar Power

Advantages

Advanced technical development, widespread commercial deployment, high-volume cost advantages, very flexible deployment at distribution levels

Disadvantages

Very sporadic and unpredictable power supplies, low power output at distribution levels, real impact only at transmission voltages with limited areas of deployment

Other Hydro

Advantages

Developed commercial technology well-understood

Disadvantages

Difficult and expensive to install and permit, (40% higher cost per kW installed) often environmental, navigational or recreational impacts. Best locations for generation often do not match best grid intertie locations.

Design Features

  • —Electrically, the units will be designed to produce 30kW to 350kW of power at 480 volt Direct Current (DC).  The present design utilizes a commercially available inverter to convert the DC voltage generated to 3-phase Alternating Current (AC).
  • The AC current is then stepped-up to the appropriate Distribution Line voltage (typically 12-13kV) using a commonly available transformer
  • —All electrical interconnecting components between the device and the Utility’s Distribution system will follow IEEE Standard 1547.
  • —This standard was issued in 2003 and is well established and in common use at this time.
  • —The interconnection components are identical to those used for wind and solar installations and are commercially available from multiple vendors serving the industry.
  • —System protection and control devices, communication protocols, and metering standards are also well-established and in common practice throughout the US.